Thursday, September 17, 2009

The "Largest" Unregulated Negative Externality

Most of the significant, and even some of the not too significant, negative externality problems have been identified and regulated in some way. We still debate the proper type and role of regulation, but at least we have made attempts at internalizing the costs of many pollution problems, second hand smoke, drunk driving, noise, and even dog poop. But there is one negative externality that has gone relatively untouched as far as attempts at regulation and that's obesity. Some cities have regulated the use of trans fats in cooking. The next step may be to tax the negative externality causing products, products high in high fructose corn syrup.

The economic argument is pretty straight forward. A negative externality is a cost bestowed on a party who did not participate in the original market transaction. In economics, these costs are referred to as external costs and should be considered a cost of production just like land, labor, and capital. If I decide to drive my gasoline powered car, I incur private costs such as the gas, car maintenance, depreciation, risk of an accident, etc. But I also create an external cost in that the emissions of CO2 and NOx from my tailpipe add to the greenhouse effect and smog. This external cost is an important cost when calculating the social cost of my behavior and if unaccounted for, constitutes a market failure. Obesity also has private and external costs. The existence of external costs means that obesity creates a market failure too.

One way to change my behavior about driving too many miles in my car, is to tax gasoline. The tax should be equal to the damage (external cost) caused by me consuming that gallon of gas. Although the demand for gas, and food for that matter, is fairly inelastic, people may still respond by reducing their consumption.

Yes, like taxes on gasoline, taxes on food are regressive (the poor would pay a larger portion of their income on these taxes) so there are equity concerns. However not all food would be taxed and maybe other income security policies could mitigate some of the distributional issues. However from an efficiency standpoint, taxes on foods and beverages high in sugar make the most economic sense.


Proposed Tax on Sugary Beverages Debated

Published: September 16, 2009

The debate over a tax on sugary soft drinks — billed as a way to fight obesity and provide billions for health care reform — is starting to fizz over.

The tax would apply to soft drinks, energy drinks, sports beverages and many juices and ice teas, but not sugar-free diet drinks.

President Obama has said it is worth considering. The chief executive of Coca-Cola calls the idea outrageous, while skeptics point to political obstacles and question how much of an impact it would really have on consumers.

But a team of prominent doctors, scientists and policy makers says it could be a powerful weapon in efforts to reduce obesity, in the same way that cigarette taxes have helped curb smoking.

The group, which includes the New York City health commissioner, Thomas Farley, and Joseph W. Thompson, Arkansas surgeon general, estimates that a tax of a penny an ounce on sugary beverages would raise $14.9 billion in its first year, which could be spent on health care initiatives. The tax would apply to soft drinks, energy drinks, sports beverages and many juices and iced teas — but not sugar-free diet drinks.

The group’s review of research on the topic, appearing in The New England Journal of Medicine, was released on Wednesday, the same day that Senator Max Baucus, the Montana Democrat, made public his health care reform plan, with an estimated cost of $774 billion over 10 years. The Baucus plan would be paid for by an array of taxes and fees on high-end group insurance plans, drug and medical device makers, and other sources, with no mention of any tax on sugary beverages.

The scientific paper found that a beverage tax might not only raise revenue but have significant health effects, lowering consumption of soda and other sweet drinks enough to lead to a small weight loss and reduced health risks among many Americans.

The study cited research on price elasticity for soft drinks that has shown that for every 10 percent rise in price, consumption declines 8 to 10 percent.

John Sicher, the publisher of Beverage Digest, a trade publication, said that a two-liter bottle of soda sells for about $1.35. At 67.6 ounces, if the full tax was passed on to consumers, that would add 50 percent to the price. A 12-can case, which sells today for about $3.20, could rise by $1.44, a 45 percent increase.

“A one cent per ounce tax would create serious problems and potentially adversely impact sales for the American beverage industry,” Mr. Sicher said.

The proposed tax faces a formidable hurdle in Congress, where several members have voiced strong opposition and few if any have said more than that they would be willing to consider it.

The soft drink industry has adamantly resisted the notion that its products are responsible for a national increase in obesity or that a tax would help curb the problem.

And even a supporter of a beverage tax said it was not clear if it would have a direct effect on the waistlines of Americans.

“I think we should be satisfied that soda taxes would be having a modest effect on consumption but would generate billions of dollars that could be used to mount public health campaigns,” said Michael Jacobson, executive director of the Center for Science in the Public Interest, an advocacy group that favors such a tax.

He said that if the tax was levied on the manufacturers of the sugary drinks they might be able to spread the cost among many of their products, from chips to granola bars to diet sodas, which would keep sugary drink users from feeling the full impact.

Nonetheless, discussion of the tax has the beverage industry on the defensive.

Muhtar Kent, the chief executive of Coca-Cola, was asked about the tax on Monday during an appearance at the Rotary Club of Atlanta and he responded by calling it “outrageous.”

“I have never seen it work where a government tells people what to eat and what to drink,” Mr. Kent said, according to a report by Bloomberg News. “It if worked, the Soviet Union would still be around.”

The industry began to coordinate its response in June when it created an organization called Americans Against Food Taxes.

On its Web site, nofoodtaxes.com, the group calls itself “a coalition of concerned citizens” opposed to “the government’s proposed tax hike on food and beverages,” including soda and juice drinks. Calls to a media contact listed on the site reach the American Beverage Association, an industry organization whose board is made up of top executives from the major soft drink manufacturers.

Americans Against Food Taxes bought a full-page ad last Sunday in The Washington Post. It was fashioned as an open letter to Congress, saying “Don’t tax our groceries.” It has also been running commercials on cable networks, including CNN, MSNBC and Fox News, according to Kevin W. Keane, senior vice president for public affairs at the beverage association.

Mr. Keane said that the association was heading the antitax group and that the beverage industry was paying for its activities.

He took exception to any efforts to single out sugary drinks in the fight against obesity.

“When it comes to losing weight, all calories count, regardless of the food source,” Mr. Keane said. “The bottom line is that the tax isn’t going to make anybody healthier. It’s not going to make a dent in a problem as complex and serious as obesity, and we’re certainly not going to solve the complexities of the health care system with a tax on soda pop.”

Talk of a soda tax is just the latest headache for an industry that has been struggling with flat or declining sales for many products, from sodas to bottled water.

Across the country, many schools have removed soda vending machines saying they should not be plying children with sugary drinks.

Last month, the American Heart Association urged people to reduce their intake of sugary foods and beverages to lower the risk of conditions like obesity and high blood pressure — singling out soft drinks as a prime culprit.

Even President Obama has voiced a cautious openness to the tax.

“I actually think it’s an idea that we should be exploring,” he said, in a recent interview in Men’s Health magazine. “There’s no doubt that our kids drink way too much soda. And every study that’s been done about obesity shows that there is as high a correlation between increased soda consumption and obesity as just about anything else.”

But Mr. Obama acknowledged that there would be significant resistance to such a tax.

Kelly D. Brownell, the lead author of the study and director of the Rudd Center for Food Policy and Obesity at Yale, said in an interview that a penny-an-ounce tax would have an immediate and powerful impact on the nation’s elevated obesity rate.

He said that a tax was justified in part because conditions like obesity and diabetes are often treated with public funds through programs like Medicaid and Medicare. Revenue from the tax could help pay for such care.

Acknowledging how difficult it would be to get a tax through Congress, he said state or local governments could take the first step.

That would follow tobacco, which has been heavily taxed by states in an effort to reduce smoking and defray the costs of smoking-related illnesses.

Representative Bill Pascrell Jr., a Democrat from northern New Jersey, who supports a soda tax said that House lawmakers had considered including it as part of their health reform bill but decided it was too divisive. “It didn’t look like we had the votes,” he said.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Economics of Misbehaving in School

Great piece from NPR's Planet Money. The Economics of Misbehaving

To behave or make mischief? For many school kids it comes down to a kind of cost-benefit analysis. Act out and get noticed? There are rewards associated with being popular or the class clown. This Planet Money report focuses on the inner economic life of students.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112739889

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Seven Consensus Opinions

The following financial market commentary was written by Matt Malick and Ben Atwater. Matt and Ben recently started their own firm, Atwater Malick LLC. Matt was a student of mine and has a really insightful take on what's happening in the market. Ben and Matt have developed a sound and unique investment philosophy for their clients. They regularly write market commentaries and I plan to post them here for interested followers.
“We are standing by a wishing well / Make a wish into the well / That's all you have to do / And if you hear it echoing / Your wish will soon come true.” – Snow White, from Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1937)

Today we are examining what we perceive to be the most widely held consensus opinions among business journalists, economists, analysts, and investment managers. Below are seven thoughts that nearly everyone seems to agree on regarding the present market and economy:

1) “The American consumer will never be the same.”

Clearly, the average American’s personal balance sheet has taken a significant hit over the last couple of years with lower home values and diminished investment accounts. Americans have also accumulated bloated home equity and credit card debt, and now a rising unemployment rate is adding insult to injury. But, it is also true that many Americans have now deferred substantial spending for nearly a year. Consumers have cut clothing purchases and vacations, neglected to update household necessities, haven’t replaced aging cars or upgraded housing. It is difficult to quantify this pent-up demand, but it could uncoil like a spring.

We would also venture to say that spending has become ingrained in our national culture, for better or worse. While a higher national savings rate would be a healthy long-term phenomenon, you can’t change a zebra’s stripes and we are not convinced that Americans will sustain high savings.

2) “A ‘V’ shaped recovery will not happen.”

As the United States has emerged from previous recessions, GDP growth has gone from a negative reading to an above-average annual reading because many people and businesses defer purchases during a recession and manufactures and retailers permit inventories to deplete. When we begin feeling more comfortable, we tend to start buying again. But after this recession, most observers predict that we will emerge with below-trend GDP growth, i.e. less than 3% annual growth in the year after the recession; whereas a “V” shaped recovery would lead to annual GDP growth of 5%-plus during the ensuing year, which is more in-line with other post-recession periods. There will undoubtedly be a struggle between the competing forces of postponed purchases and the need to save more.

3) “The federal deficit is out of control and will only get worse and worse and worse.”

The prospects are certainly dim, but with an improved economy and structural changes on the revenue and expenditure side, hope is not lost. Many people do not fully understand the federal budget. The vast majority of federal expenditures can be attributed to Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and national defense. Moderate, but intelligent, structural changes in these four areas can go a very long way toward changing our long-term fiscal outlook. Couple this with improving GDP growth, which leads to an expanding tax base, and the federal budget takes on a different complexion. Don’t forget, ten years ago, the Treasury was running budget surpluses and even “retired” the 30-year bond as a funding mechanism. Unfortunately, this turned out to be a Brett Favre-like retirement.

4) “The stock market has rallied too far, too fast, and September is historically the worst month for the market. Watch out below!”

We are somewhat skeptical because nearly everyone thought and still thinks that the market will lose substantial ground in the near-term (i.e. a 20% correction). Investors most likely withdrew funds from the market in anticipation of this predicted swoon. If decent economic news prevails and asset managers think they are missing something, they will undoubtedly flood more money into the market.

We agree that the market rally is overdone for certain speculative stocks. But, in our view, quality is still underpriced in this market. There are many legendary franchises “on sale” with price-to-earnings ratios below fifteen times and dividend yields is excess of 3%.

5) “Problematic inflation is nearly inevitable as a result of the immense fiscal and monetary stimulus.”

This viewpoint is wildly inconsistent with the other opinions on this consensus list, but many people hold them in concert nonetheless. If a weak economy were to prevail for the foreseeable future, the probabilities favor a deflationary environment, not an inflationary one. Post-bubble periods are indicative of deflation, i.e. the United States in the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world have the tools at their disposal to fight rising core inflation, as long as the political will exists. However, if we do experience a more robust recovery, we believe that commodity-driven inflation is a distinct possibility. We foresee inadequate capacity in world commodity supplies to support even modest worldwide economic growth.

6) “Unemployment will exceed 10%.”

This is certainly looking highly probable. But in a note to clients at the near-term market bottom on March 9, 2009, we wrote:

“While it is impossible to predict the precise future of labor markets, we can all but guarantee that the unemployment rate is going to get worse, probably considerably so, before it gets better. But what does this imply for the markets? As Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Our last truly dire economic situation was in the early 1980s when unemployment was not only high, but inflation was also rampant. In November of 1981, the unemployment rate crossed the 8.0% mark to land at 8.3% (similar to today [March 9, 2009]). At that time the Dow was trading around 850. Over the next 14 months, unemployment continued to rise, finally peaking at 10.8% in November and December of 1982. While the Dow temporarily dropped to around the 800 level, the stock market took off while unemployment continued to rise. By the end 1982, an awful year for employment in the U.S., the market was over 1,000 and it never looked back.”

If history does indeed rhyme this time around, we would not expect a market decline strictly as a result of a rising unemployment rate. However, if unemployment does continue to rise over the next 6-12 months, it will inevitably be a roadblock to a sustainable economic recovery.

7) “Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop.”

We find it amusing that only a small handful of market pundits were able to predict the first shoe that dropped (residential real estate), but now, all of the pundits believe they can predict the next shoe to drop.

Contrarian investing does not mean disagreeing with every opinion in the marketplace. Without a doubt, we expect some of the above consensus predictions will come to fruition. But, we are highly skeptical that all of these will ultimately materialize. Overall, our reading of sentiment is that many people continue to be very negative on the economy and the markets. To us, this means there is still opportunity to make smart, long-term investments that precede future money flows into the stock market.

View our previous market commentaries at www.atwatermalick.com.